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How can we afford to expand our urban footprint
without enough tax payers to carry the burden?]
How can we afford to expand our urban footprint
without enough tax payers to carry the burden?]
What if the reports our planners are using are so unrealistic that they have our regional growth expectations wrong?
What if development of more agricultural land is completely unnecessary?
One of the most important tasks a municipality faces is ensuring the right infrastructure is in place to meet future needs. Planners need to make sure there are enough houses, roads and amenities using population predictions prepared years in advance.
Getting the formula right is very challenging. This is why municipalities commission demographic experts to assist them.
Two important reports at play in Windsor-Essex are the Windsor-Essex and City of Windsor Population and Housing Projections (2008) and the Lauzon Parkway Improvements Environmental Assessment (2014).
These reports use population projections calculated by the consultants Lapointe (yellow in the graph below) and MMM (the green line). Last month’s census results showed just how hard it is to get the numbers right: LaPointe had predicted Windsor-Essex would have 34,148 more residents by now, and MMM was off by 19,803 residents.
The Ministry of Finance also predicts population. The discrepancy between their numbers and the actual is more muted, but this could be in part because their prognostications are updated every year.
Getting the formula right is very challenging. This is why municipalities commission demographic experts to assist them.
Two important reports at play in Windsor-Essex are the Windsor-Essex and City of Windsor Population and Housing Projections (2008) and the Lauzon Parkway Improvements Environmental Assessment (2014).
These reports use population projections calculated by the consultants Lapointe (yellow in the graph below) and MMM (the green line). Last month’s census results showed just how hard it is to get the numbers right: LaPointe had predicted Windsor-Essex would have 34,148 more residents by now, and MMM was off by 19,803 residents.
The Ministry of Finance also predicts population. The discrepancy between their numbers and the actual is more muted, but this could be in part because their prognostications are updated every year.
Projecting this out 15 years, the discrepancies are alarming. The difference between LaPointe and the Ministry is 63k residents, and MMM exceeds the Ministry's data by 31k.
This has critical implications for all of us. If our planners base their infrastructure development on completely inaccurate assumptions, Windsor-Essex runs the risk of over-developing for our future needs.
Excessive infrastructure capacity is inefficient and costly. Downsizing is an option when your house is too big, but it’s not that simple for community planning. If our tax base is too small to pay for our future needs, there will be less money available for “nice to have” amenities. This will put further pressure on our population, especially those of working age, who tend to be more mobile.
The following graph shows the same data as the one above, but with a shortened vertical axis and labels added to give more insight into the numbers involved:
This has critical implications for all of us. If our planners base their infrastructure development on completely inaccurate assumptions, Windsor-Essex runs the risk of over-developing for our future needs.
Excessive infrastructure capacity is inefficient and costly. Downsizing is an option when your house is too big, but it’s not that simple for community planning. If our tax base is too small to pay for our future needs, there will be less money available for “nice to have” amenities. This will put further pressure on our population, especially those of working age, who tend to be more mobile.
The following graph shows the same data as the one above, but with a shortened vertical axis and labels added to give more insight into the numbers involved:
How did the experts get it so wrong?
Many complex factors go into these projections, but we can see two possible explanations:
Many complex factors go into these projections, but we can see two possible explanations:
- It’s human nature to be optimistic. Consultants usually develop low, medium and high growth scenarios. We noticed that even their least optimistic scenarios exceeded the actual outcomes. Both LaPointe (p.24) and MMM (p.110) admitted the census results on which they based their calculations were lower than they had previously expected. Neither allowed the more sober reality of the past to interfere with the optimism we suspect their client expected from them.
- LaPointe (p.25) assumed considerable migration to the area as a result of diversification of our local economy that has not materialized as anticipated. Their summary (copied below) describes a sobering consequence that isn't reflected in LaPointe's own data tables:
Lapointe’s data includes an additional 3% allowance over and above census data to reflect inaccuracies in data collection.
Also, although the MMM final report is dated 2014, the 2011 data point exceeds the census total because the calculations were prepared before census results were made public. This is how the discrepancy was explained on p110 of the report:
Also, although the MMM final report is dated 2014, the 2011 data point exceeds the census total because the calculations were prepared before census results were made public. This is how the discrepancy was explained on p110 of the report:
How this relates to hospital development
Windsor's mayor Drew Dilkens makes it no secret that he is excited to get started on developing the Sandwich South land. After all, it's in a mayor's job description to be optimistic.
But if the assumptions informing his opinion are unrealistic, he may be leading his constituents down the wrong development path. Not only is there no indication that our agricultural “nest-egg” needs to be developed any time soon, but doing so will add an excessive financial burden to our children and grandchildren.
It’s important to right-size our expectations before it’s too late.
It’s easy to get excited about new construction, but that development can take place in the available pockets of our region's existing neighbourhoods just as easily. Let's get excited about the right kind of development to match a more accurate expectation of our future population and its infrastructure needs.
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